{
 "v": 1,
 "as_of": "2026-07-23",
 "design": "pre-registered: each hypothesis states its direction before the test; null results are reported, not re-cut",
 "universe_residential_parcels": 10689,
 "residential_nc_events": 156,
 "tests": {
  "H1_historic_suppresses": {
   "claim": "historic/conservation districts suppress residential redevelopment",
   "inside_n": 1755,
   "inside_events": 13,
   "inside_rate": 0.00741,
   "outside_n": 8934,
   "outside_events": 143,
   "outside_rate": 0.01601,
   "rate_ratio_inside_vs_outside": 0.463,
   "p_two_sided": 0.00603,
   "verdict": "PASS",
   "consequence": "build_pipeline_json.py excludes historic parcels on this assumption \u2014 PASS justifies it, FAIL means remove the exclusion"
  },
  "H2_ord_2025_1_effect": {
   "claim": "Ord 2025-1 raised the rate of residential New Construction",
   "window_before": "2018-09-28..2025-02-10 (77 mo)",
   "window_after": "2025-02-10..2026-07-16 (17 mo)",
   "events_before": 118,
   "events_after": 38,
   "per_month_before": 1.532,
   "per_month_after": 2.235,
   "change_pct": 45.9,
   "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE \u2014 permit filings lag ordinance change; only 17 months post-ordinance and construction pipelines run 12-24 months. Directional only, do not publish as causal."
  },
  "H3_5000sf_threshold": {
   "claim": "lots just over the 5,000 SF inclusionary threshold redevelop more",
   "just_under_4500_5000": {
    "events": 14,
    "n": 699,
    "rate": 0.02003
   },
   "just_over_5000_5500": {
    "events": 17,
    "n": 808,
    "rate": 0.02104
   },
   "wide_band_artifact": "3-5k vs 5-7k gives p=9e-05, but that is the lot-size gradient, not a threshold effect \u2014 do not use it",
   "gradient_by_band_pct": {
    "2-3k": 0.6,
    "3-4k": 0.98,
    "4-4.5k": 0.85,
    "4.5-5k": 2.0,
    "5-5.5k": 2.1,
    "5.5-6k": 2.3,
    "6-7k": 3.16
   },
   "rate_ratio_over_vs_under": 1.05,
   "p_two_sided": 0.89033,
   "verdict": "FAIL (not distinguishable from chance)"
  },
  "H4_low_building_share": {
   "claim": "redeveloped parcels had a lower building share of assessed value",
   "median_share_redeveloped": 0.5619,
   "n_redeveloped": 113,
   "median_share_not": 0.5748,
   "n_not": 9387,
   "p_two_sided": 0.45591,
   "verdict": "FAIL (not distinguishable from chance)"
  },
  "H5_new_construction_premium": {
   "claim": "new construction sells at a higher $/SF than existing stock",
   "median_ppsf_new": 414,
   "n_new": 2,
   "median_ppsf_existing": 845,
   "n_existing": 158,
   "premium_pct": -50.9,
   "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE (too few new-construction listings)"
  },
  "H6_avoids_flood": {
   "claim": "residential New Construction avoids FEMA flood zones",
   "in_flood_n": 289,
   "in_flood_events": 6,
   "in_flood_rate": 0.02076,
   "outside_n": 10400,
   "outside_events": 150,
   "outside_rate": 0.01442,
   "rate_ratio": 1.439,
   "p_two_sided": 0.37548,
   "verdict": "FAIL (not distinguishable from chance)"
  }
 }
}